Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Flat at 16,000 Tons as Dry Spell Clouds 2026/27 Main Crop

Cocoa futures climbed to their highest level in more than a week on Monday, September 28, as forecasts of continued dry weather in Ivory Coast raised fresh concerns about the 2026/27 main crop. Port arrivals in the world’s largest producer were estimated at 16,000 metric tons in the week to September 27, unchanged from the previous week, for a season total of 36,500 tons since the marketing year opened on September 1 — well below the five-year average pace. For buyers, slow arrivals, an unresolved farmers’ strike and a widening rainfall deficit make weekly arrival figures through October the key indicator for fourth-quarter supply.

Arrivals Hold at 16,000 Tons for a Second Consecutive Week

Exporter estimates reported by ADM Investor Services put deliveries to Abidjan and San Pedro at 16,000 tons for the week ending September 27, the same as the week before. The cumulative 36,500 tons since September 1 sits well below the benchmark of recent years: the five-year average for the first week of a season alone is 54,600 tons. The comparison is imperfect, however, because Ivory Coast moved the start of its marketing year from October 1 to September 1 this year, partly to prepare reporting systems for EU deforestation rules.

The series has already been revised once: Reuters cut arrivals through September 13 to 4,500 tons from an initially reported 26,000. Official figures may also understate physical movement. Ivory Coast’s guaranteed farmgate price of 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram (about $2,080 per ton) now sits well below Ghana’s new producer price of 42,400 cedis per ton (about $3,650), which took effect when COCOBOD opened its season on September 25 — a gap ADMIS warns could push beans unofficially across the border. The indefinite strike by the SYNAPCI union, whose farmers are withholding cocoa from purchasing stations, is a further brake on deliveries.

Dry Spell Extends, With No Relief Forecast for 7–10 Days

World Weather Inc. called weekend rainfall in Ivory Coast and parts of Ghana sporadic, leaving many production areas dry or with net drying, and expects no change for seven to ten days. Farmers had already told Reuters that rainfall in the week to September 21 was below average across most main growing regions: no rain fell around Soubré and Divo, while Daloa received just 3.6 mm, roughly 26 mm below its historical average.

The concern centers on the young pods that would sustain output after December. Some are already falling for lack of moisture, farmers said, warning that without regular rain before mid-October the harvest could effectively wind down in December rather than run through February. Early surveys also point to below-average cherelle formation, and overcast conditions are complicating the drying of beans already harvested.

Cocoa Rebounds From Eight-Week Lows as Weather Premium Returns

The market began pricing the risk on September 21, when New York December cocoa rose 0.45% and London December 0.69%, recovering from eight-week lows as short covering met the dry forecasts. By September 28, futures traded around $5,600 per ton, the highest in over a week, settling at $5,589, down 0.53% on the day. Even after the rebound, prices remain about 17% lower than a month ago and roughly 20% below last year’s level.

Comfortable Stocks Now, Tighter Forecasts for 2026/27

Near-term supply remains ample: ICE-certified inventories hit a two-year high of 3.44 million bags on September 4 and held near that level at 3.43 million on September 21. Barry Callebaut said on September 2 that the global market is well supplied after Ivory Coast’s 2025/26 harvest reached 2.06 million tons, up 30% year on year according to the Coffee-Cocoa Council.

The medium-term balance looks different. Estimates tracked by Trading Economics point to Ivory Coast output falling about 20% to 1.75 million tons in 2026/27, with Ghana down 13% to 650,000 tons, and warn that an unusually strong El Niño could intensify dry Harmattan winds from November; the 2023/24 El Niño episode drove prices to record highs.

What This Means for Buyers

• Physical flows, not futures, set export offers. Withholding under the strike and the Ghana price gap can keep port supply tight even when screen prices fall, so spot availability may not soften with the board.

• October arrivals are the tell. Main-crop volumes normally build from late October toward a December peak; the next four to six weekly readings will show whether the slow start is a calendar effect or a genuine shortfall.

• The weather risk is back-loaded. The rainfall deficit threatens the pods that sustain output after December, so any price relief from a good initial flush could prove temporary. Rainfall before mid-October is the line to watch.

• Cross-border leakage complicates compliance. Beans moving unofficially into Ghana blur origin data just as EUDR due-diligence documentation requirements approach at year-end.

Our Position

Huanda Cocoa sources cocoa beans from West Africa, including Ivory Coast and Ghana, and processes them at three FSSC 22000 certified facilities in Cambodia, China and Indonesia, with COA documentation on every batch and exports to more than 62 countries. We are tracking weekly arrival figures and rainfall patterns through our origin channels while contracting 2026/27 raw material. Buyers reviewing fourth-quarter coverage can request current offers through our cocoa powder page; our earlier report on the farmgate dispute is available at Ivory Coast cocoa farmers’ strike.

Sources

ADMIS — Cocoa Main Crop Faces Dry Spell — September 28, 2026
CocoaIntel — Cocoa Holds $5,300; Côte d’Ivoire Deliveries Corrected, Ecuador Exports Surge — September 21, 2026
Barchart via Yahoo Finance — Cocoa Prices Supported by Forecasts for Dry Weather in the Ivory Coast — September 21, 2026
Trading Economics — Cocoa Price, Chart and Forecasts — data as of September 28, 2026