Cocoa Prices Rebound as El Niño Threatens West Africa's 2026/27 Crop
New York cocoa futures climbed to an eight-month high near $6,455 per tonne on July 9, 2026, capping a rebound of roughly 46% in one month. The trigger is weather. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed El Niño conditions on June 10, and heavy rains followed by dry spells across Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are now threatening the 2026/27 main crop. For buyers of cocoa powder, cocoa butter and cocoa liquor, the price floor has moved up, and forward coverage decisions made in the next quarter will matter more than usual.
What happened in the market
ICE New York cocoa rallied about 18% in the week to July 10 alone, reaching $5,919 per tonne, before consolidating above $5,400 in the week of July 21. London futures moved in parallel. The speed of the move caught many participants off guard: speculative funds had been net short, and July saw aggressive short covering. Commercial hedgers took the other side, selling forward at levels they had not seen since late 2025.
Citi holds a neutral stance, with a three-month target of $5,000 per tonne and a twelve-month target of $6,000. The bank says it needs clearer evidence of El Niño crop damage before turning more bullish. Lindt & Sprüngli CFO Martin Hug told investors that even without an El Niño event, the next crop is unlikely to match the current harvest, and that chocolate demand could recover in volume terms.
Why El Niño matters for cocoa
El Niño shifts rainfall patterns across coastal West Africa, where Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire produce roughly 60% of the world's cocoa. The weekly Niño 3.4 index reached +1.7°C in mid-June. NOAA puts the probability of a strong event at 67%, with the peak expected between September and November 2026, exactly when the West African main crop develops.
Historical precedent is not encouraging. Five strong events since 1950 have each cut yields in the region. The 2023/24 episode helped drive futures above $12,000 per tonne and pushed the global stocks-to-grindings ratio to a 30-year low of 27%.
Supply signals from West Africa
The numbers are already moving:
Côte d'Ivoire's 2026/27 output is now forecast around 1.8 million tonnes, down about 18% from the roughly 2.2 million tonnes expected for 2025/26.
StoneX cut its 2026/27 global surplus estimate to 149,000 tonnes, from 267,000 tonnes forecast in January.
Heavy early-July rains and flooding disrupted harvesting and port transport in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, and raised black pod disease pressure ahead of the main crop.
The buffer is thin. The market returned to a small surplus in 2024/25 after three years of deficit, but stocks relative to demand remain modest. A double-digit production shortfall in West Africa would erase that surplus quickly.
What this means for ingredient buyers
Buyers who need cocoa powder or cocoa butter in Q4 2026 and early 2027 face a simple choice: lock in coverage now at levels well below last year's highs, or wait and carry weather risk through the main crop season. The practical middle path is partial forward coverage. Securing 50-70% of expected volume now leaves room to benefit if the weather normalizes, while protecting production schedules if El Niño delivers a real supply shock.
As a producer with factories in China, Cambodia and Indonesia, we are watching origin arrivals and butter-to-powder ratios closely. If you want to discuss contract timing or specification options for the coming season, our team is available through the contact page.
Sources
FAQ
