Cocoa Supply Rebuilds: Ivory Coast Arrivals Up 21%, ICE Stocks at Two-Year High
Cocoa's supply story has turned faster than most buyers expected. Ivory Coast port arrivals for the 2025/26 season reached 2.11 million tonnes through July 26, up 21% year on year, and ICE-certified cocoa stocks in US ports climbed to a two-year high of 3.38 million bags by July 28. Futures have responded. After peaking above $6,500 per tonne in mid-July, New York cocoa has given back a large part of its weather-driven rally and now trades in a $5,100 to $5,400 band. Near-term availability is comfortable. The open question is the 2026/27 main crop that starts in September.
What the July data shows
Four data points from the last two weeks define the current picture:
•Port arrivals: Ivory Coast farmer deliveries to Abidjan and San Pedro totaled 2.11 million tonnes between October 1 and July 26, a 21% increase over the same period last season, according to government data.
•Exchange stocks: ICE-certified inventories reached 3,375,119 bags by July 28, the highest level in two years and up from roughly 2.93 million bags in early June.
•Nigeria: June cocoa exports rose 30% year on year to 18,922 tonnes, Bloomberg reported, adding to the sense of ample nearby flow.
•Crop outlook: early cherelle surveys pointed to a 2026/27 Ivory Coast main crop near 1.8 million tonnes, about 18% below the commonly cited 2.2 million tonne benchmark. Late-July resurveys, including commentary from a senior manager at Expana, show a substantial improvement in pod counts compared with the first rounds.
One caveat matters for reading these numbers. Ivory Coast's 2025/26 national output is guided down 10.8% to 1.65 million tonnes. The strong arrival figures reflect better marketing flow and recovered logistics after last season's disruption, not a larger harvest.
Futures give back part of the July rally
September New York cocoa last traded at $5,169 on July 29, well below the mid-July peak above $6,500 and the cycle high close to $6,898. London moved in parallel, with September finishing at 3,887 pounds the same day. Rising deliverable stocks have repeatedly capped rallies through July: each weather-driven push higher ran into warehouse data pointing the other way. The forward curve still slopes upward into 2027, which shows the market continues to price forward crop risk even while nearby supply looks ample.
Demand side stays mixed
Second-quarter grindings split by region. European volumes fell 4.6% year on year to 316,366 tonnes, the weakest second quarter in six years. North American grindings rose 7.7% to 109,659 tonnes, and Asian grindings jumped 25% to 224,646 tonnes. On the processor side, Malaysia's Guan Chong plans to run its plants at about 90% of capacity in 2026, up from roughly 85% in 2025, while cautioning that El Niño conditions could force lower grinding volumes in 2027.
What this means for cocoa ingredient buyers
For buyers of cocoa powder and other cocoa ingredients, the next one to two months shape up as the most favorable purchasing window since the 2024 crisis. Arrivals are strong, certified stocks sit at a two-year high, and futures trade roughly 60% below their December 2024 peak. Two risks argue against full complacency: the expected El Niño peak between September and November coincides with West African main crop development, and 2026/27 surplus estimates have been shrinking all season.
The practical approach is layered coverage. Use the current softness to secure Q4 2026 and early Q1 2027 requirements, and keep a measured share of later volume open in case pod-count improvement holds through September. As a producer with plants in China, Cambodia and Indonesia, we track origin arrivals and butter-to-powder ratios weekly. If you want to discuss contract timing or specifications for the coming season, our team is available through the contact page.
Sources
•Ivory Coast Cocoa Monthly Report, July 2026 — CropGPT, August 1, 2026
•New York Cocoa Reverses Sharply as Ivory Coast Crop Outlook Improves — CocoaIntel, July 28, 2026
•Cocoa Futures Hit Two-Month Low on Supply Surge — CropGPT, July 23, 2026
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