Climate change is significantly impacting cocoa production in West and Central Africa, a region responsible for over 70% of the world's cocoa supply, according to a study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns are rendering some areas less suitable for cocoa cultivation, while others may become more favorable. This complex dynamic poses both challenges and opportunities for the cocoa industry.

Using a computer model, researchers led by Paulina Asante from Ghana simulated the effects of climate change by 2060 in four key cocoa-producing countries: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. The findings, published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, reveal stark contrasts. Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, could lose up to 50% of its current cocoa-growing areas, leading to a significant decline in production. Ghana is expected to experience a moderate reduction in suitable land, while Nigeria and Cameroon may see an expansion in arable areas for cocoa. Cameroon's production could increase by 60%, and Nigeria's by approximately 40%.

Risks of Deforestation and Supply Chain Challenges

The shifting suitability of cocoa-growing areas raises concerns about deforestation, particularly in Cameroon, where cocoa farming often encroaches on tropical rainforests. Niels Anten, a WUR researcher, warns that this could place immense pressure on fragile ecosystems. To mitigate these risks, Paulina Asante emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach across the supply chain. Farmers, businesses, and governments must work together to adapt to climate change, maintain production in existing regions, and prevent deforestation in new areas. This is especially critical as the European Union's deforestation-free regulations (EUDR) come into effect, requiring sustainable sourcing practices.

Uncertainties in Climate Projections

The study's projections are based on current knowledge of cocoa physiology and climate models, but several uncertainties remain. For instance, the potential benefits of rising atmospheric CO₂ levels—which could enhance photosynthesis and mitigate some effects of drought and heat—are not fully understood. Additionally, the impact of warming on cocoa flowering, fruiting, and pest dynamics requires further research. These knowledge gaps highlight the urgent need for more comprehensive studies to prepare the agricultural sector for future challenges.

Implications for Farmers and Adaptation Strategies

For smallholder farmers in West Africa, who often struggle with low incomes and limited resources, climate change poses a serious threat. To counteract these challenges, improving yields per hectare is crucial. Current production levels are far below their potential, and better soil management, targeted fertilization, and agroforestry practices could help bridge this gap. Agroforestry, which involves growing cocoa alongside shade trees, can lower temperatures, stabilize humidity, and provide additional income sources for farmers. However, selecting the right tree species is essential, as some may exacerbate water scarcity.

Danaë Rozendaal, another researcher on the team, stresses the importance of developing heat- and drought-resistant cocoa varieties and providing farmers with the necessary training and resources. These measures could help sustain or even increase production in the face of climate change.

Broader Impacts on the Chocolate Industry

The effects of climate change on cocoa production are already being felt. Cocoa trees, which typically have a lifespan of 20 to 30 years, are struggling with higher temperatures and erratic rainfall, leading to crop failures in regions like Ivory Coast. Consumers are experiencing the impact through rising chocolate prices. Some manufacturers are adapting by reducing cocoa content in their products, incorporating alternatives like cookie pieces to offset costs.

While Niels Anten humorously reassures that "chocolate letters won't shrink to microscopic sizes," he acknowledges that the cocoa sector must adapt to a changing climate. Ongoing research is examining how West Africa can meet growing global cocoa demand while complying with EUDR regulations and addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

Conclusion

The study underscores the urgent need for coordinated efforts to address the impacts of climate change on cocoa production. By improving agricultural practices, developing resilient cocoa varieties, and preventing deforestation, stakeholders can help ensure the sustainability of the cocoa industry. However, further research and collaboration are essential to navigate the uncertainties and challenges ahead, safeguarding the livelihoods of millions of farmers and the future of chocolate production.